Election simulator
Set the result in a few towns, a national share for lists, or a change in turnout, and see how many seats that gives each list. This is not a poll and not a forecast: only what follows from what you set.
Towns
Choose a town and enter the result you imagine there. Every town you have not set is filled in from the towns you set that voted like it in the election to the 25th Knesset. One town cannot teach much, so the range is wide; three or more towns that differ from one another already teach something.
National shares
A share you set for a list overrides what the towns fill in; the rest of the votes are shared among the other lists in the same proportion.
Turnout
A change in percentage points from the previous election, in each of the two groups of towns the map finds in the data. It applies to the towns you have not set.
How is it calculated?
Every town has a place: the first two principal components of how its votes split in the election to the 25th Knesset. For each list, the simulator fits what you set in the towns to their places (a regression on principal components), and fills in every other town by its place. Then the threshold (3.25%) and the Bader-Ofer method, the same method that shared out the seats in the previous elections. The range beside each list is measured: the method was run on past elections (the 22nd to the 25th Knesset), each from the one before it, with large towns picked at random. Methods.