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The political map by polling place

The same map with a dot for every polling place instead of every locality. A big city is hundreds of dots here, and neighbourhoods that vote differently come apart.

Polling places in 2022, the 25th Knesset

5,074 polling places · the axes explain 47% of the variation between them
Where the lists sit
  1. 1United Torah Judaism
  2. 2Shas
  3. 3Religious Zionist Party
  4. 4Likud
  5. 5Yisrael Beiteinu
  6. 6National Unity
  7. 7Yesh Atid
  8. 8העבודה
  9. 9מרצ
  10. 10חד"ש-תע"ל
  11. 11Ra'am

The colour is also the colour of the polling places the list won. The order is their position on the horizontal axis.

A list's average position The locality you searched for A polling place's colour = the list that won it · size = the votes counted there · polling places with fewer than 300 votes are not drawn

And within each camp

As on the map by locality, the split into two camps is derived from the data, and each camp is decomposed again on its own. The build's stability test decides for each camp whether its second dimension is shown. At polling-place level, with many times the rows, it decides afresh, and a camp that passes it is drawn in two dimensions.

Jewish localities

4,279 polling places · the within-camp axes explain 56% of the variation within the camp

Arab localities

795 polling places · the within-camp axes explain 57% of the variation within the camp

How a polling place is the same place in two elections

The Central Elections Committee splits and merges ballot boxes between elections: box 20 in one election is 20.1 to 20.5 in the next. The whole number is the polling place, and it carries over. For every pair of consecutive elections we measure how closely a polling place's vote follows the vote at the same number in the election before, within its locality, against the next number in the same locality as a control. The map is fitted on the elections of 2019–2022: the latest run in which every pair matches at 0.85 or better. Its axes are fitted on 2,784 polling places with at least 300 votes in each of those elections.

ElectionsPolling places matchedCorrelationControl: the next place
2003 → 2006 7,475 0.72 0.34
2006 → 2009 8,066 0.85 0.39
2009 → 2013 9,049 0.75 0.35
2013 → 2015 9,737 0.83 0.37
2015 → 2019 8,665 0.80 0.35
2019 → 2019 8,855 0.95 0.39
2019 → 2020 8,869 0.97 0.40
2020 → 2021 5,201 0.89 0.38
2021 → 2022 4,527 0.90 0.34

The correlation is measured on the share of every list that took at least 1% in both elections, as a difference from its locality's mean, with no ballot letter assigned to any party. A letter that passed from one list to another can only lower it.

What this map does not say. A polling place is a place, not a person: here too nothing follows about how any one voter voted. A polling place has hundreds of voters, not thousands, so a small one's position is noisier than a locality's. An estimate, not a measurement